El Niño is here, and the outlook has changed considerably since earlier forecasts this year.

According to NOAA's September ENSO outlook, El Niño is strengthening rapidly, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during fall and winter 2026–27. NOAA also gives the October through December period a 75% chance of reaching historic strength, exceeding previous El Niño events in the record dating back to 1950.

That does not mean every classic El Niño impact will happen everywhere. But a stronger event increases the odds of seeing recognizable El Niño weather patterns, including shifts in storm tracks, heavy precipitation, drought, flooding, winter storms, and changes in hurricane activity.

This is not a single storm or one-week weather event. El Niño is a months-long climate pattern, and its influence is expected to become increasingly important as we move through fall and into winter.

Earlier this year, we asked Brock Long, former FEMA Administrator and Uncharted advisor, what people should be watching.

His answer was direct:

Buckle up. The West will burn this summer. And it's already started, way ahead of normal. ”

Now, at the end of September, wildfire season is beginning to wind down in some areas but it is not over. National fire officials were still reporting active large fires across the country as September came to a close, while parts of the West remain vulnerable to dry fuels and fall wind events.

For the Southeast, Brock also noted that El Niño years can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, but that does not mean the risk disappears.

I never put a ton of weight into a hurricane seasonal forecast. I take the approach that I don't care how many storms are forecast. It only takes one to destroy a community. ”

That perspective still matters.

NOAA's updated outlook continues to favor a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. But hurricane season runs through November 30, and a quieter season overall says nothing about whether an individual community will be hit.

The same is true for wildfire, flooding, power outages, and winter storms. A seasonal forecast describes probabilities across a large area. Your emergency can still be local.

Preparedness is how you reduce that impact.

First: El Niño vs. La Niña

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the same climate pattern, known as ENSO, or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In simple terms, ENSO tracks changes in ocean temperatures and winds across the tropical Pacific. Those changes can shift weather patterns around the world, including here in the U.S.

El Niño is the warmer phase. It changes large-scale atmospheric circulation and can shift the jet stream and storm tracks, influencing precipitation, drought, temperatures, winter storms, and hurricane activity.

La Niña is the cooler phase. It often brings a different set of impacts, including changes to winter precipitation and storm tracks and, in many years, a more favorable environment for Atlantic hurricanes.

For 2026, there is no longer much uncertainty about which phase we're entering. El Niño conditions are already present and strengthening. NOAA expects the event to continue through winter 2026–27, with the strongest effects likely becoming more apparent over the next several months.

The important part: El Niño does not dictate the weather on any particular day. Instead, it changes the odds of certain weather patterns over an entire season.

• Fall may bring continued wildfire concerns in parts of the West, heavy rain in parts of the Southwest and southern U.S., tropical systems, flooding, and early-season storms.
• Early winter is expected to bring a stronger El Niño influence as the Pacific storm track becomes more important.
• Winter increasingly favors wetter conditions across much of the southern U.S., California, and parts of the East, while portions of the northern tier may trend drier.

What a Major Weather Pattern Shift Could Mean for Your Region

Weather patterns are broad, but preparation is local. Here's what the latest fall and winter outlook could mean for your part of the country:

Mountain West

Northern Nevada • Northern Utah • Colorado • Idaho • Montana • Wyoming

For the Mountain West, the transition from fall into winter is the story. Fire danger can remain elevated until widespread moisture arrives, particularly during dry and windy periods. Then the same region quickly shifts toward freezing temperatures, mountain snow, icy roads, and travel disruptions.

The latest seasonal outlook does not point to uniformly wet conditions across the entire interior West. Parts of the northern Intermountain West lean drier as El Niño strengthens, while areas farther south have better odds of increased precipitation. That makes local conditions and elevation especially important.

This is a region where preparedness often means being ready for both sides of the season: late wildfire or smoke concerns one month and winter road closures a few weeks later.

Primary Risks:

What To Prepare For: Keep emergency gear in your vehicle, especially if you travel through mountain passes or rural highways. Have backup lighting and power at home, store water, and keep evacuation gear accessible until fire season is truly over. Before winter, add cold-weather gear, traction, food, water, and backup power to your vehicle setup.

Southwest

Southern Nevada • Arizona • New Mexico • Southern Utah • West Texas

The Southwest is one of the areas to watch closely as El Niño strengthens. NOAA's October outlook favors increased precipitation across parts of the region, with the wetter signal extending toward southern California, the southern Great Plains, and Gulf Coast.

That does not eliminate heat, drought, or wildfire concerns immediately. Dry soils and burn scars can actually increase the danger when heavier rain arrives, turning a storm into a flash-flood or debris-flow threat. Remote highways can also become difficult or impassable very quickly.

As fall progresses into winter, the focus gradually shifts from heat toward heavy precipitation, flooding, mountain snow, and travel disruption.

Primary Risks:

What To Prepare For: Keep water and emergency supplies in your vehicle, especially for long drives through remote areas. Never depend on normally dry washes or low-water crossings remaining passable during storms. At home, focus on backup lighting, charging, water, first aid, and protection for important gear if heavy rain or flooding develops.

California

California may face one of the sharpest seasonal transitions. Fall still brings wildfire and offshore-wind concerns, particularly before widespread rain arrives. But as El Niño strengthens into winter, NOAA increasingly favors wetter-than-normal conditions across the state, with some of the strongest winter precipitation odds along the California coast.

That creates a different set of risks: heavy rain, flooding, debris flows near burn scars, mountain snow, road closures, power outages, and the possibility of atmospheric river events. El Niño does not guarantee any individual storm, but it raises the odds of a wetter winter pattern.

Primary Risks:

What To Prepare For: Keep your go bag ready through the end of fire season, then make sure that same kit works for flooding and winter outages. Keep vehicle fuel, power, first aid, and communication tools accessible. Store important documents, medical supplies, and critical gear in waterproof bags or cases.

Pacific Northwest

Washington • Oregon

A strong El Niño does not necessarily mean a stormier Pacific Northwest. In fact, NOAA's fall and winter outlook leans toward drier-than-normal conditions across portions of the interior Northwest as the main storm track favors areas farther south.

That does not remove the usual fall and winter hazards. Windstorms, heavy rain events, mountain snow, falling trees, and extended power outages remain possible even during a season that finishes drier than average overall. Early fall can also carry lingering wildfire and smoke concerns before cooler, wetter weather becomes established.

Primary Risks:

What To Prepare For: Plan for blackout readiness at home: lighting, charging, food, water, and warmth. Keep your vehicle stocked for mountain travel, road closures, winter delays, and storm-related detours. A drier seasonal forecast is not a reason to ignore individual storms.

Great Plains / Midwest

Texas • Oklahoma • Kansas • Missouri • Great Plains

The central U.S. is built for fast-changing weather, and this fall could reinforce that reputation. NOAA's October outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across portions of the central and southern Great Plains, while the broader winter pattern increasingly favors a wetter southern and central tier of the country.

Heavy rain, flash flooding, severe thunderstorms, hail, and sharp temperature swings remain concerns during fall. As winter takes over, ice, snow, freezing rain, and hazardous road conditions become increasingly important.

Brock also pointed out that unusual patterns can push severe weather into places that do not always expect it:

You're going to get crazy snowstorms in the winter, and weird things, like tornadoes in areas that don't typically get them. ”

Primary Risks:

What To Prepare For: Know where you will shelter before a warning is issued. Keep a NOAA radio, backup power, flashlights, food, water, and first aid supplies ready. Vehicle gear becomes increasingly important as fall transitions into freezing rain, winter storms, road closures, and long travel delays.

Southeast / Gulf Coast

Florida • Louisiana • Mississippi • Alabama • Georgia • Carolinas • Gulf States

El Niño is helping suppress overall Atlantic hurricane activity, and NOAA continues to favor a below-normal 2026 season. But September 29 is still well within hurricane season, which does not officially end until November 30.

A below-normal season is a measure of activity across the entire Atlantic basin. It is not a forecast of whether your town will be hit. Tropical storms, hurricanes, storm surge, inland flooding, and long-duration power outages remain possible until the season ends.

Looking farther ahead, the strengthening El Niño increasingly favors a wetter winter pattern across the southern U.S. and along parts of the Atlantic coast.

Primary Risks:

What To Prepare For: Keep your hurricane supplies in place through November 30. Make sure you have water, food, backup power, waterproof storage, and a family communication plan. If evacuation becomes necessary, your vehicle should already be stocked and ready.

Northeast

The strongest El Niño effects in the Northeast may become more apparent later in fall and winter. NOAA's seasonal outlook increasingly favors wetter-than-normal conditions extending northward along the Atlantic Coast and into New England as the season progresses.

That can mean more opportunities for coastal storms, heavy precipitation, flooding, snow or ice depending on temperatures, and transportation disruptions. Dense population centers mean even a moderate storm can create major ripple effects through power systems, roads, airports, and public transit.

Primary Risks:

What To Prepare For: Prepare now for winter travel delays, home outages, and communication failures during storms. Keep backup heat, lighting, charging, first aid, food, water, and vehicle supplies ready before winter weather arrives.

What Should You Do Now?

With El Niño strengthening and winter approaching, now is the time to cover the basics:

• Build a 72-hour emergency plan
• Keep emergency gear in every vehicle
• Have backup lighting and charging ready
• Store emergency food and water
• Prepare your 72-hour survival system
• Create evacuation and communication plans
• Know how your family will reconnect if cell service goes down
• Check your first aid, power, and vehicle gear before winter
• Keep important documents protected and easy to grab
• Adjust your emergency kit for the risks most likely in your region

You do not need to prepare for every possible El Niño outcome. Start with the disruptions most likely where you live: power loss, vehicle trouble, flooding, wildfire or smoke, evacuation, winter travel, or communication outages.

The forecast will keep changing. The basics of preparedness won't.