El Niño is back in the forecast, and it could shape weather across the U.S. from summer 2026 through winter 2026–27.
According to NOAA's latest ENSO outlook, El Niño is likely to emerge between May and July 2026, with a strong chance of continuing through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026–27. That means this is not a single storm or one-week weather event. It is a months-long climate pattern that can influence heat, drought, wildfire conditions, flooding, storm tracks, hurricanes, and winter weather across the country.
Long-range forecasts are never perfect. But the takeaway is simple: weather volatility may increase, and the best time to prepare is before the pattern becomes a problem.
So we asked Brock Long, former FEMA Administrator and Uncharted advisor, for his take.
His answer was direct:
Buckle up. The West will burn this summer. And it's already started, way ahead of normal. ”
For the Southeast, Brock noted that El Niño years can sometimes mean fewer hurricanes overall, but that does not mean the risk disappears.
I never put a ton of weight into a hurricane seasonal forecast. I take the approach that I don't care how many storms are forecast. It only takes one to destroy a community. ”
That perspective matters.
NOAA is currently forecasting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. But "below normal" does not mean "low risk." Even one storm can cause major damage if it hits the wrong place at the wrong time.
The same is true for wildfire, flooding, power outages, and winter storms. You do not need every forecast to come true. You only need one disruption to affect your home, vehicle, family, or community.
Preparedness is how you reduce that impact.
First: El Niño vs. La Niña
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the same climate pattern, known as ENSO, or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In simple terms, ENSO tracks changes in ocean temperatures and winds across the tropical Pacific. Those changes can shift weather patterns around the world, including here in the U.S.
El Niño is the warmer phase. It often changes the jet stream, shifts storm tracks, and can influence heavy precipitation, drought, heat, winter storms, and hurricane activity.
La Niña is the cooler phase. It often brings a different set of impacts, including changes to winter storm patterns and, in many years, a more favorable environment for Atlantic hurricanes.
For 2026, the primary concern is El Niño developing during summer, strengthening into fall, and continuing into winter 2026–27. Some longer-range discussions also mention the possibility of future ENSO swings after that, which is why you may see both El Niño and La Niña in the conversation.
The important part: this is a seasonal pattern, not a single event. The impacts can build over time.
- Summer may bring heat, drought stress, wildfire conditions, severe storms, or hurricane-season concerns.
- Fall may bring flooding, tropical systems, wind events, or early winter shifts.
- Winter may bring snow, ice, flooding, power outages, and travel disruptions depending on your region.
What a Major Weather Pattern Shift Could Mean for Your Region
Weather patterns are broad, but preparation is local. Here's what this outlook could mean for your part of the country:
Jump to your region
Mountain West
Northern Nevada • Northern Utah • Colorado • Idaho • Montana • Wyoming
The Mountain West could see a wide range of weather extremes this year. Summer may bring prolonged heat, elevated wildfire risk, smoky air, drought stress, and isolated flash flooding from summer storms. By fall and winter, a more active storm pattern could increase snow, ice, and travel disruptions in parts of the Rockies and interior West.
This is the region where "preparedness" often means being ready for both sides of the same season: wildfire evacuation in summer and winter travel delays a few months later.
Primary Risks:
What To Prepare For: Keep emergency gear in your vehicle, especially if you travel through mountain passes, rural highways, or wildfire-prone areas. Have backup lighting and power at home, store water, and make sure your evacuation bag is packed before fire season escalates.
Southwest
Southern Nevada • Arizona • New Mexico • Southern Utah • West Texas
The Southwest deserves its own category because the risks here are different from the northern Mountain West. This region may see prolonged heat, drought stress, water shortages, wildfire conditions, dust storms, and sudden flash flooding during monsoon season. In the desert, the same dry ground that fuels fire risk can also make heavy rain more dangerous, because water often runs off quickly instead of soaking in.
The timing also matters. Heat and wildfire concerns can build early, while monsoon storms and flash flooding are more likely later in summer and into fall. Winter may be milder in some desert areas, but travel disruptions can still happen in higher elevations and rural corridors.
Primary Risks:
What To Prepare For: Plan around heat first: water, shade, backup power, and vehicle readiness matter. Keep emergency supplies in your car, especially for long drives through remote stretches of highway. Prepare for sudden flooding during monsoon storms, and avoid low-water crossings when storms are nearby. At home, focus on water storage, backup lighting, charging, air filtration, and a plan for power interruptions during extreme heat.
California
California faces a dangerous combination of wildfire conditions, atmospheric river flooding, mudslides, public safety power shutoffs, and evacuation traffic. The risk is not just one type of disaster — it is the rapid swing between dry conditions, heavy precipitation, and strained infrastructure.
Primary Risks:
What To Prepare For: Have a go bag ready before evacuation warnings are issued. Keep vehicle fuel, power, first aid, and communication tools accessible. Store key documents and gear in waterproof bags or cases.
Pacific Northwest
Washington • Oregon
The Pacific Northwest may see heavier rain periods, windstorms, mountain snow, localized flooding, and extended power outages. Dense forests, saturated ground, and aging electrical infrastructure can make even moderate storms disruptive.
Primary Risks:
What To Prepare For: Plan for blackout readiness at home: lighting, charging, food, water, and warmth. Keep your vehicle stocked for road closures, winter delays, and storm-related detours.
Great Plains / Midwest
Texas • Oklahoma • Kansas • Missouri • Great Plains
The central U.S. is built for fast-changing weather, but that does not make it easy. Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, flash flooding, and winter ice events can all create dangerous conditions with little warning.
Brock also pointed out that unusual patterns can push severe weather into places that do not always expect it:
You're going to get crazy snowstorms in the winter, and weird things, like tornadoes in areas that don't typically get them. ”
Primary Risks:
What To Prepare For: Know where you will shelter before a warning is issued. Keep a NOAA radio, backup power, flashlights, food, water, and first aid supplies ready. Vehicle gear is especially important for sudden flooding, road closures, or winter ice.
Southeast / Gulf Coast
Florida • Louisiana • Mississippi • Alabama • Georgia • Carolinas • Gulf States
El Niño can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, and NOAA is currently forecasting a below-normal Atlantic season. But below normal does not mean harmless. The Atlantic hurricane season still runs from June 1 through November 30, and one major storm can define an entire year for the community it hits.
This region may also face flooding, tropical systems, dangerous humidity, extreme heat, and long-term power outages after severe weather.
Primary Risks:
What To Prepare For: Build your home emergency kit before peak hurricane season. Make sure you have water, food, backup power, waterproof storage, and a family communication plan. If evacuation becomes necessary, your vehicle should already be stocked and ready.
Northeast
The Northeast may see nor'easters, coastal flooding, winter ice storms, heavy snow, and transportation disruptions. Dense population centers mean even moderate storms can create major ripple effects: power outages, road closures, transit delays, and supply disruptions.
Primary Risks:
What To Prepare For: Prepare for winter travel delays, home outages, and communication failures during storms. Keep backup heat, lighting, charging, first aid, and vehicle supplies ready before winter weather arrives.
What Should You Do Now?
Before the next season hits, focus on the basics:
- Build a 72-hour emergency plan
- Keep emergency gear in every vehicle
- Have backup lighting and charging ready
- Store emergency food and water
- Prepare your 72-hour survival system
- Create evacuation and communication plans
- Know how your family will reconnect if cell service goes down
- Check your first aid, power, and vehicle gear before you need it
- Keep important documents protected and easy to grab
- Revisit your plan before summer, fall, and winter weather shifts
You do not need to prepare for every possible scenario at once. Start with the most likely disruptions in your region: power loss, vehicle trouble, flooding, wildfire smoke, evacuation delays, winter travel, or communication outages.
Preparedness works best when it is practical.